Webinars - Detail

Improving earthquake rate models for seismic hazard forecasts: Swarms, fluid injection and volcanos, oh my!
Andrea Llenos, U.S. Geological Survey


Long-term probabilistic seismic hazard assessments (PSHA) have traditionally modeled earthquake occurrence as a stationary, time-independent process, largely driven by plate tectonic motion.  However, earthquakes can be triggered by other physical processes that act on shorter time-scales, such as volcanic eruptions/intrusions, natural fluid flow in the crust, or activities related to energy production, and there is increasing interest in understanding how PSHA can account for these rate variations.  In this talk, I will summarize some recent studies that explore ways to improve forecasts when the earthquake rate is varying over time.  These cases will include natural and induced swarms, as well as caldera collapse earthquakes triggered during the 2018 Kilauea eruption.


Last updated Key Points