2012 IRIS Workshop

Preliminary dynamic models of potential earthquakes in the San Gorgonio Pass, CA

Jennifer M. Tarnowski: University of California, Riverside, David D. Oglesby: University of California, Riverside

Map view of the maximum horizontal ground velocity along the southern San Andreas Fault System as a result of a dynamic rupture model of an earthquake through the San Gorgonio Pass. The star indicates the epicenter. The areas of maximum motion follow the trend of the fault trace. Complex fault geometry in the San Gorgonio Pass region results in an asymmetric pattern of near-fault ground motion.

Full-resolution graphics file in original format: 0128.pdf

The San Gorgonio Pass is a structurally complex area of Southern California that includes the San Andreas Fault. Several smaller faults with mixed mechanisms are also present in this region There is uncertainty about whether the complexity of the fault geometry is a barrier to through-going rupture in this area, which has implications for seismic hazard analysis. Dynamic models of potential earthquakes can incorporate the uncertainty in fault structure and can produce results that illuminate the range of possible behaviors, which may in turn be tested with future work in geophysics and observational seismology.

Acknoweldgements: The authors would like to thank Michele Cook for her continuous contributions to the fledging project and Doug Yule for his paleoseismic knowledge of the area. We also gratefully acknowledge many insightful discussions with John Hole and Gary Fuis.

Keywords: dynamic_models, fault_structure

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